NEW! FIRST DRAFT: Taxing Wealth and Capital Income when Returns are Heterogeneous (with Kambourov, Kuruscu, and Ocampo), March 2022.
NEW! FIRST DRAFT: A Tractable Income Process for Business Cycle Analysis
(with Alisdair McKay and Conor Ryan), February 2022.
Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment, Productivity, and the Labor Share
(with Ray Mataloni, Dylan Rassier, Kim Ruhl), American Economic Review, forthcoming. Appendix
Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades
(with Greg Kaplan, Jae Song and Justin Weidner), May 6, 2021, AEJ: Applied, forthcoming.
Data in Excel
Use It or Lose It: Efficiency Gains from Wealth Taxation (with Burhan Kuruscu, Gueorgui Kambourov, Sergio Ocampo, Daphne Chen), R&R QJE, 2019.
Region Magazine (free access), Financial Times, Bloomberg 1, Bloomberg 2, The Economist
Benchmarking Global Optimizers
(with Antoine Arnoud and Tatjana Kleineberg), September 25, 2019.
Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurance
(with Christopher Busch, David Domeij, and Rocio Madera), AEJ: Macro, forthcoming.
The Glass Ceiling and The Paper Floor: Changing Gender Composition of Top Earners Since the 1980s
(with Greg Kaplan and Jae Song), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2020.
Appendix (older version)
In the Media: The New Yorker, Wall Street Journal 1, Wall Street Journal 2, Vox, Washington Post 1, Washington Post 2, The Atlantic
NBER Digest summary
PUBLISHED VERSION: What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Life-Cycle Earnings Dynamics? (with Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song), Econometrica, Vol. 89, No 5, p. 2303-39.
- Online Appendix (Published version), Data Moments for Men (for Published version)
- In the Media: Bloomberg, Slate, Washington Post, The Telegraph, Bloomberg/Business, CNBC
- VoxEU article we wrote as a nontechnical summary of the paper.
- Earlier Working Paper Version with additional material (August 2016): Section 7 of this version simulates a life-cycle consumption-savings model with the non-linear, non-Gaussian income process estimated in the paper and compares its implications to those from a standard linear-Gaussian income process. Three main topics studied are: (i) the risk premium households would pay to avoid idiosyncratic income risk, (ii) wealth inequality, and (iii) partial insurance against income shocks.
- Data Appendix for the August 2016 version of draft (uses labor income over 1994-2013):
- July 2015 version (based on wage/salary income over 1978-2013: Manuscript (2015), Data Appendix (Excel file)
BOOK: Quantitative Economics With Heterogeneity: An A-to-Z Guidebook, under contract with Princeton University Press.
Some thoughts on wage/job polarization: My published discussion of Foote/Ryan paper at the NBER Macroannual 2014.
Multidimensional Skill Mismatch
(with Burhan Kuruscu, Satoshi Tanaka, and David Wiczer), AEJ: Macro, January 2020.
- In the media: Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal 2, Wall Street Journal 3, Bloomberg 1, Bloomberg 2, Washington Post, Telegraph, Fortune, Forbes, The Hill
- Online Appendix (QJE Version), Data of Figures and Tables in Paper (Excel format)
- Longer Working Paper version: Firming Up Inequality (March 27, 2018)
The Disappearing Large-Firm Wage Premium, (with Nicholas Bloom, Benjamin Smith, Jae Son, Till von Wachter), AEA P&P 2018, Vol 108: 317–322
Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes
(with Greg Kaplan), FRB Minneapolis Quarterly Review, April, 2017.
Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment, AER P&P, May 2017
(with Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song).
Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk, AER P&P, May 2017.
(with Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Jae Song, and Moto Yogo)
Women’s Emancipation Through Education: A Macroeconomic Analysis
(with Michelle Rendall), 2015, Review of Economic Dynamics, forthcoming.
Taxation of Human Capital and Wage Inequality: A Cross-Country Analysis,
(with Burhanettin Kuruscu and Serdar Ozkan) Review of Economic Studies, 2014, Vol 81, pp. 818-850.
How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners?
(with Greg Kaplan and Jae Song), American Economic Review P&P, May 2014.
The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk
(with Serdar Ozkan and Jae Song), 2014, Journal of Political Economy.
Inferring Labor Income Risk and Partial Insurance from Economic Choices* (with Tony Smith), 2014, Econometrica.
Joint Search Theory: New Opportunities and New Frictions*
(with Bulent Guler and Gianluca Violante), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2012, Vol. 59, No. 4, pp. 352-369.
Understanding the Evolution of the U.S. Wage Distribution: A Theoretical Analysis*
(with Burhanettin Kuruscu), Journal of European Economic Association, 2012, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 482-517.
A Quantitative Analysis of the Evolution of the U.S. Wage Distribution: 1970-2000*
(with Burhanettin Kuruscu), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2009, Volume 24, pp. 231-276.
An Empirical Investigation of Labor Income Processes*
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2009, Vol. 12, No 1, pp. 58-79.
A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing* ,
Econometrica, 2009, Vol. 77, No. 6, pp. 1711-1740.
Online Appendix, Summary in Region Magazine
Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models: Theory PAPER (with Hanno Lustig) New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition. Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models: Empirical Performance PAPER (with Hanno Lustig) New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition. Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
Learning Your Earning: Are Labor Income Shocks Really Very Persistent?*
American Economic Review, June 2007, Vol. 97, No. 3, pp. 687-712. Online Appendix
Do Stockholders Share Risk More Effectively than Non-stockholders?
Review of Economics and Statistics, May 2007, Vol. 89, No. 2, pp. 275-288.
Reconciling Conflicting Evidence on the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution: A Macroeconomic Perspective
Journal of Monetary Economics, October 2006, Vol. 53, No 7, pp. 1451-72.
Does Market Incompleteness Matter for Asset Prices? PAPER
(with Burhanettin Kuruscu) Journal of European Economic Association P&P, April-May 2006, pp. 484-492.
*The papers marked with a star are based on research supported by the National Science Foundation under grant number SES-0351001, SES-0649437 or SES-1357874.