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Research by Topic
Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment, Productivity, and the Labor Share
(with Ray Mataloni, Dylan Rassier, Kim Ruhl), American Economic Review, forthcoming.
Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades
(with Greg Kaplan, Jae Song and Justin Weidner), May 6, 2021, AEJ: Applied, forthcoming.
Data in Excel
Use It or Lose It: Efficiency Gains from Wealth Taxation (with Burhan Kuruscu, Gueorgui Kambourov, Sergio Ocampo, Daphne Chen), R&R QJE, 2019.
REVISED: Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades, (with Greg Kaplan, Jae Song and Justin Weidner), May 6, 2021. Data in Excel
Use It or Lose It: Efficiency Gains from Wealth Taxation (with Burhan Kuruscu, Gueorgui Kambourov, Sergio Ocampo, Daphne Chen), August 29, 2019.
The Disappearing Large-Firm Wage Premium, (with Nicholas Bloom, Benjamin Smith, Jae Son, Till von Wachter), AEA P&P 2018, Vol 108: 317–322
Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes, (FRB Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Fall 2017)
Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment, AER P&P, May 2017.
Firming Up Inequality, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Lead article, February 2019 (with Jae Song, David Price, Nick Bloom, and Till von Wachter).
Online Appendix, Data of Figures and Tables in Paper (Excel format)
In the media: Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal 2, Wall Street Journal 3, Bloomberg 1, Bloomberg 2, Washington Post, Telegraph, Fortune, Forbes, The Hill
The Glass Ceiling and The Paper Floor: Gender Differences Among Top Earners, 1981-2012, (with Greg Kaplan and Jae Song), In revision. Appendix
In the Media: The New Yorker, Wall Street Journal, Vox, Washington Post 1, Washington Post 2, The Atlantic
NBER Digest summary
Lifetime Incomes in the United States Today, Work in Progress (with Greg Kaplan and Jae Song).
Understanding the Evolution of the U.S. Wage Distribution: A Theoretical Analysis* (with Burhanettin Kuruscu), Journal of European Economic Association, 2012, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 482-517.
A Quantitative Analysis of the Evolution of the U.S. Wage Distribution: 1970-2000* (with Burhanettin Kuruscu), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2009, Volume 24, pp. 231-276.
NEW! FIRST DRAFT: A Tractable Income Process for Business Cycle Analysis
(with Alisdair McKay and Conor Ryan), February 2022.
REVISED (May 2020): Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurance (with Christopher Busch, David Domeij, and Rocio Madera)
REVISED (February 2021): What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Life-Cycle Earnings Dynamics? (with Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song), Econometrica, forthcoming.
Data Moments for Men (for 2021, published version)
Working Paper, August 2016 Version: Section 7 of this version simulates a life-cycle consumption-savings model with the non-linear, non-Gaussian income process estimated in the paper and compares its implications to those from a standard linear-Gaussian income process. Three main topics studied are: (i) the risk premium households would pay to avoid idiosyncratic income risk, (ii) wealth inequality, and (iii) partial insurance against income shocks.
Data Appendix for the August 2016 version of draft (uses labor income over 1994-2013):
Moments for Men for 2016 version (reported in the manuscript)
Moments for Women for 2016 version (Not in the paper)
Older version (based on wage/salary income over 1978-2013: Manuscript, Data Appendix (Excel file)
In the Media: Bloomberg, Slate, Washington Post, The Telegraph, Bloomberg/Business, CNBC
A nontechnical summary blog post we wrote for VoxEU
Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment, AER P&P, May 2017 (with Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song).
Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk, AER P&P, May 2017 (with Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Jae Song, and Moto Yogo)
Click here for Longer NBER Working Paper Version + Appendix, Data in Excel format (More statistics added, April 4, 2017)
Nontechnical summaries: The Economist
How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners? (with Greg Kaplan and Jae Song), AER P&P, May 2014.
The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk (with Serdar Ozkan and Jae Song), 2014, Journal of Political Economy.
Web Appendices: Appendix A, Appendix B, Appendix C
Tables and Data in Appendices in Excel Format
Non-technical summaries in: NBER Digest, The Region Magazine
Inferring Labor Income Risk and Partial Insurance from Economic Choices* (with Tony Smith), 2014, Econometrica. Slides Web Appendix
An Empirical Investigation of Labor Income Processes* Review of Economic Dynamics, 2009, Vol. 12, No 1, pp. 58-79.
Learning Your Earning: Are Labor Income Shocks Really Very Persistent?* American Economic Review, June 2007, Vol. 97, No. 3, pp. 687-712. Online Appendix
NEW! FIRST DRAFT: Taxing Wealth and Capital Income when Returns are Heterogeneous (with Kambourov, Kuruscu, and Ocampo), March 2022.
Use It or Lose It: Efficiency Gains from Wealth Taxation, (with G. Kambourov, B. Kuruscu, S. Ocampo, and D. Chen) SLIDES. Draft Coming Soon.
Taxation of Human Capital and Wage Inequality: A Cross-Country Analysis, (with Burhanettin Kuruscu and Serdar Ozkan) Review of Economic Studies, 2014, Vol 81, pp. 818-850.
MACRO + (FINANCE, LABOR, ETC.)
Benchmarking Global Optimizers (with Antoine Arnoud and Tatjana Kleineberg), September 25, 2019.
REVISED (February 2021): Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment, Productivity, and the Labor Share (with Ray Mataloni, Dylan Rassier, Kim Ruhl).
Women’s Emancipation Through Education: A Macroeconomic Analysis (with Michelle Rendall), 2015, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2015
Joint Search Theory: New Opportunities and New Frictions* (with Bulent Guler and Gianluca Violante), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2012, Vol. 59, No. 4, pp. 352-369.
Macroeconomics with Heterogeneity: A Practical Guide (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, 2011).
A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing* , Econometrica, 2009, Vol. 77, No. 6, pp. 1711-1740.
Online Appendix, Summary in Region Magazine
Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models: Empirical Performance (with Hanno Lustig) New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition. Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models: Theory (with Hanno Lustig) New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition. Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
Do Stockholders Share Risk More Effectively than Non-stockholders? Review of Economics and Statistics, May 2007, Vol. 89, No. 2, pp. 275-288.
Reconciling Conflicting Evidence on the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution: A Macroeconomic Perspective Appendix Journal of Monetary Economics, October 2006, Vol. 53, No 7, pp. 1451-72.
Does Market Incompleteness Matter for Asset Prices? (with Burhanettin Kuruscu) Journal of European Economic Association P&P, April-May 2006, pp. 484-492.
BOOK: Quantitative Economics With Heterogeneity: An A-to-Z Guidebook, under contract with Princeton University Press.
Some thoughts on wage/job polarization: My published discussion of Foote/Ryan paper at the NBER Macroannual 2014.
*The papers marked with a star are based on research supported by the National Science Foundation under grant number SES-0351001, SES-0649437 or SES-1357874.