By Topic: Working/Published Papers
(Some papers are listed under multiple topics)
TAXATION
WORKING PAPER: NEW! Book-Value Wealth Taxation, Capital Income Taxation, and Innovation, JUNE 2024
(with Kambourov, Kuruscu, and Ocampo)
Substantially revised and expanded version that replaces “Taxing Wealth and Capital Income when Returns are Heterogeneous”.
PUBLISHED: Use It or Lose It: Efficiency and Redistributional Effects of Wealth Taxation
(with Gueorgui Kambourov, Burhan Kuruscu, Sergio Ocampo, Daphne Chen), Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2023.
Online Appendix Computational Appendix
Slides
Region Magazine (free access) Financial Times The Economist. Bloomberg 1 Bloomberg 2
PUBLISHED: Taxation of Human Capital and Wage Inequality: A Cross-Country Analysis
(with Burhanettin Kuruscu and Serdar Ozkan)
Review of Economic Studies, 2014, Vol 81, pp. 818-850.
INCOME INEQUALITY
WORK IN PROGRESS: Lifecycle Origins of Inequality: Slides (from June 2024 SED meetings)
(with Luigi Pistaferri and David Price)
PUBLISHED: Global Trends in Income Inequality and Income Dynamics: New Insights from GRID
(with Luigi Pistaferri and Gianluca Violante) Quantitative Economics Special Issue, November 2022.
Webinar on GRID (with some results from the paper above), April 2023:
Slides
Watch Video
EconomicDynamics Interview about GRID: Watch Video
PUBLISHED: Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades
(with Greg Kaplan, Jae Song, Justin Weidner), American Economic Journal: Applied, October 2022, Vol 14, No 4, pp. 446-79.
Online Appendix, Replication package
Slides
Research Brief
PUBLISHED: The Glass Ceiling and The Paper Floor: Changing Gender Composition of Top Earners Since the 1980s
(with Greg Kaplan and Jae Song)
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2020.
Appendix (older version)
PUBLISHED: Firming Up Inequality
(non-alphabetical: with Jae Song, David Price, Nick Bloom, and Till von Wachter)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, January 2019, Vol 134, No 1. pp. 1-50.
In the media: Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal 2, Wall Street Journal 3, Bloomberg 1, Bloomberg 2, Washington Post, Telegraph, Fortune, Forbes, The Hill
PUBLISHED: The Disappearing Large-Firm Wage Premium
(with Nicholas Bloom, Benjamin Smith, Jae Son, Till von Wachter)
AEA P&P 2018, Vol 108: 317–322
PUBLISHED: Stagnation in Lifetime Incomes: An Overview of Trends and Potential Causes
in Revitalizing Wage Growth, 2018, by Brookings Institution.
(A nontechnical overview of facts on stagnation in lifetime incomes, its causes, and some policy proposals.)
PUBLISHED: Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes
(with Greg Kaplan)
FRB Minneapolis Quarterly Review, April, 2017.
PUBLISHED: Taxation of Human Capital and Wage Inequality: A Cross-Country Analysis
(with Burhanettin Kuruscu and Serdar Ozkan)
Review of Economic Studies, 2014, Vol 81, pp. 818-850.
Some Thoughts on Wage/Job Polarization: My published comments on Foote/Ryan Paper in the 2014 NBER Macroeconomics Annual.
PUBLISHED: Understanding the Evolution of the U.S. Wage Distribution: A Theoretical Analysis*
(with Burhanettin Kuruscu)
Journal of European Economic Association, 2012, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 482-517.
PUBLISHED: A Quantitative Analysis of the Evolution of the U.S. Wage Distribution: 1970-2000*
(with Burhanettin Kuruscu)
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2009, Volume 24, pp. 231-276.
WEALTH INEQUALITY
WORK IN PROGRESS: On the Mechanics of Top Wealth Inequality SLIDES (Draft coming soon)
(with Sergio Ocampo and Serdar Ozkan)
PUBLISHED: Use It or Lose It: Efficiency and Redistributional Effects of Wealth Taxation
(with Gueorgui Kambourov, Burhan Kuruscu, Sergio Ocampo, Daphne Chen), Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2023.
Online Appendix Computational Appendix
Slides
Region Magazine (free access) Financial Times The Economist. Bloomberg 1 Bloomberg 2
PUBLISHED: Reconciling Conflicting Evidence on the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution: A Macroeconomic Perspective
Journal of Monetary Economics, October 2006, Vol. 53, No 7, pp. 1451-72.
Appendix
Relevance: The model generates substantial wealth inequality (matching the US Gini), thanks to return heterogeneity created through limited participation in the stock market and an equity premium.
INCOME (& FIRM) DYNAMICS & RISK
FORTHCOMING: Consumption Dynamics and Welfare Under Non-Gaussian Earnings Risk
(randomized author order: Fatih Guvenen, Serdar Ozkan, Rocio Madera),
forthcoming in JEDC Special Issue on “Heterogeneity and Macroeconomics of Labor Markets”
WORKING PAPER: Skewed Business Cycles
(non-alphabetical: Salgado, Guvenen, and Bloom), May 2023,
Slides
WORKING PAPER: The Great Micro Moderation
(with Nicholas Bloom, Luigi Pistaferri, Sergio Salgado, John Sabelhaus, Jae Song), 2022
WORKING PAPER: A Tractable Income Process for Business Cycle Analysis
(with Alisdair McKay and Connor Ryan), February 2022.
PUBLISHED: Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurance
(with Christopher Busch, David Domeij, and Rocio Madera)
American Economic Journal: Macro, April 2022, Vol 14, No 2, pp 207-242.
PUBLISHED: What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Life-Cycle Earnings Dynamics?
(with Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, Jae Song)
Econometrica, September 2021, Vol 89, No 5, pp 2303-2339.
Online Appendix (Published version), Data Moments for Men (for Published version)
Correction: Typo in Table 1. The 1.46% figure on row 2 should be 0.26%. All other numbers are correct.
In the Media: Bloomberg, Slate, Washington Post, The Telegraph, Bloomberg/Business, CNBC
VoxEU article we wrote as a nontechnical summary of the paper.
Earlier Working Paper Version with additional material (August 2016): Section 7 of this version simulates a life-cycle consumption-savings model with the non-linear, non-Gaussian income process estimated in the paper and compares its implications to those from a standard linear-Gaussian income process. Three main topics studied are: (i) the risk premium households would pay to avoid idiosyncratic income risk, (ii) wealth inequality, and (iii) partial insurance against income shocks.
Data Appendix for the August 2016 version of draft (uses labor income over 1994-2013):
Moments for Men for 2016 version (reported in the manuscript)
Moments for Women for 2016 version (Not in the paper)
July 2015 version (based on wage/salary income over 1978-2013: Manuscript (2015), Data Appendix (Excel file)
PUBLISHED: Multidimensional Skill Mismatch
(with Wiczer, Kuruscu, Tanaka)
American Economic Journal: Macro, January 2020, Vol 12, No 1, pp. 210-244.
PUBLISHED: Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment
(with Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song)
AER P&P, May 2017
PUBLISHED: Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk
(with Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Jae Song, and Moto Yogo)
AER P&P, May 2017
Click here for Longer NBER Working Paper Version + Appendix, Data in Excel format ]
PUBLISHED: The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk
(with Serdar Ozkan and Jae Song),
Journal of Political Economy, 2014.
Web Appendices: Appendix A, Appendix B, Appendix C
Tables and Data in Appendices in Excel Format
Slides
Non-technical summaries: NBER Digest, The Region Magazine
PUBLISHED: Inferring Labor Income Risk and Partial Insurance from Economic Choices*
(with Tony Smith),
Econometrica, 2014
PUBLISHED: How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners?
(with Greg Kaplan and Jae Song)
American Economic Review P&P, May 2014.
PUBLISHED: An Empirical Investigation of Labor Income Processes*
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2009, Vol. 12, No 1, pp. 58-79.
PUBLISHED: Learning Your Earning: Are Labor Income Shocks Really Very Persistent?*
American Economic Review, June 2007, Vol. 97, No. 3, pp. 687-712.
Online Appendix
OTHER MACRO, LABOR, FINANCE & COMPUTATION
PUBLISHED: Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment, Productivity, and the Labor Share (with Raymond Mataloni, Dylan Rassier, Kim Ruhl)
American Economic Review, June 2022.
Appendix
WORKING PAPER: Benchmarking Global Optimizers (Comparing TikTak and 5 other Global Optimizers)
(with Antoine Arnoud and Tatjana Kleineberg), November 2022
Computer Code for TikTak Global Optimizer posted on GitHub: Link
PUBLISHED: Commentary: What Explains the Decline in r*? Rising Income Inequality versus Demographic Shifts
Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, 2021
PUBLISHED: Joint Search Theory: New Opportunities and New Frictions*
(with Bulent Guler and Gianluca Violante)
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2012, Vol. 59, No. 4, pp. 352-369.
PUBLISHED: Macroeconomics with Heterogeneity: A Practical Guide
FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, 2011.
PUBLISHED: A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing*
Econometrica, 2009, Vol. 77, No. 6, pp. 1711-1740.
Online Appendix, Summary in Region Magazine
PUBLISHED: Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models: Theory
(with Hanno Lustig)
New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition. Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
PUBLISHED: Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models: Empirical Performance
(with Hanno Lustig)
New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition. Eds. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
PUBLISHED: Do Stockholders Share Risk More Effectively than Non-stockholders?
Review of Economics and Statistics, May 2007, Vol. 89, No. 2, pp. 275-288.
PUBLISHED: Does Market Incompleteness Matter for Asset Prices?
(with Burhanettin Kuruscu)
Journal of European Economic Association P&P, April-May 2006, pp. 484-492.